The State Bank of Pakistan is expected to maintain the current policy rate.

A statement released on Friday indicated that a poll by Topline Securities revealed 72% of market participants expect no alteration in the policy rate, an increase from 37% in the prior poll. The significant increase in expectations for the status quo indicates apprehensions that recent floods may exacerbate food and general inflation in the forthcoming months by harming crops and disrupting supply lines.

“28% anticipate a reduction of 25 basis points or more.” Topline Securities reported that 6% anticipate a 25 basis points reduction, 13% foresee a 50 basis points reduction, and 9% predict a 100 basis points reduction.

Historical data highlights the concerns. In the 2010-2011 floods, the cultivated area for primary crops, including wheat, rice, and cotton, decreased by 3% to 18%. According to the Economic Survey of Pakistan, rice production decreased by about 30% in FY11.

Topline Securities stated, “We anticipate the central bank will uphold the status quo in the forthcoming meeting due to potential inflation risks arising from recent floods and increasing imports.”