The NAC has sanctioned a modified GDP growth rate of 3.04% for FY2025.

On Wednesday, the National Accounts Committee (NAC) sanctioned the amended quarterly and yearly national accounts projections for the fiscal year 2024-25, indicating an enhancement in the overall Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate to 3.04 percent, up from the previously predicted 2.68 percent.

The 114th NAC meeting was presided over by the Secretary of the Ministry of Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives, according to a news release.

The most recent estimates indicate that the economy achieved a robust 5.66 percent increase in the fourth quarter (Q4) of FY2025, elevating the annual GDP growth beyond prior expectations. Sectoral growth rates were 1.51 percent in agriculture, 5.26 percent in industry, and 3.0 percent in services.

The economy has attained a size of Rs113.7 trillion (US$ 407.2 billion) in FY2025, up from Rs105.2 trillion (US$ 371.8 billion) the prior year, with per capita income rising to Rs506,188 (US$ 1,812).

The committee sanctioned upward adjustments in GDP growth for the initial three quarters of FY2025 – 1.80 percent in Q1, 1.94 percent in Q2, and 2.79 percent in Q3 – in contrast to the previously reported figures of 1.37 percent, 1.53 percent, and 2.40 percent.

The enhancements were primarily ascribed to upward adjustments in agricultural and industrial production.

In Q4, the industrial sector exhibited substantial growth of 19.95 percent, propelled by a significant increase in electricity, gas, and water supplies (121.38 percent) due to enhanced subsidies and a positive base effect. Construction activity rose by 17.65 percent owing to increased cement production and augmented infrastructure expenditure.

Agriculture saw divergent patterns, with significant crops decreasing by 17.55 percent, whilst other crops increased by 17.99 percent, mostly driven by enhanced production of fodder (14.2 percent), onions (12.6 percent), and mangoes (26.4 percent). During the quarter, livestock, forestry, and fisheries exhibited positive growth.

The services sector grew by 3.72 percent in Q4, with all sub-sectors making positive contributions. Wholesale and retail trade increased by 2.08 percent, transportation and storage by 4.06 percent, information and communication by 3.13 percent, finance and insurance by 6.81 percent, and public administration by 12.87 percent.
For FY2024, the committee sanctioned a revised GDP growth rate of 2.58 percent, an increase from the previously reported 2.51 percent. Agriculture sustained a growth rate of 6.40 percent, although industry and services experienced marginal improvements to -1.19 percent and 2.25 percent, respectively.

The NAC commended the National Accounts team of PBS and acknowledged the assistance of the Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives, the Ministry of Finance, and the State Bank of Pakistan in formulating the quarterly and annual GDP estimates.