Recent Update: Anticipated reduction in petrol prices in Pakistan effective May 1

With the world crude oil prices declining, the likelihood of a decrease in petroleum product prices in Pakistan effective May 1, 2025 is increasing.

Experts warn that the government’s recent decision to eliminate the Fifth Schedule, which previously limited the petroleum levy, may undermine any prospective advantages for the public.

International crude oil pricing

International crude oil prices have steadily decreased, with Brent crude futures currently at $66.60 per barrel and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude at $62.85 per barrel.

(Source: Samaa Digital)

Prices are anticipated to decrease by 2.9% this week, influenced by a probable rise in output by OPEC+ and a prospective ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war that may enhance global oil supplies.

Domestic ramifications of declining crude oil prices

The decrease in crude oil prices has historically resulted in reduced costs for petroleum products in Pakistan, leading to anticipations of domestic price reductions.

The government’s recent move to eliminate the Fifth Schedule, which formerly capped the petroleum levy at Rs 70 per liter, has prompted inquiries regarding the transmission of lower crude costs to consumers.

The government now possesses the ability to modify the petroleum levy at its discretion, free from prior constraints. This transition has raised apprehensions that the government would exploit the situation to elevate the tax, consequently counteracting any prospective reduction in petrol prices.

Prices of petrol and diesel in Pakistan

On April 15, the administration upheld the rates of petroleum products for the subsequent 15 days, referencing the existing market conditions. Notwithstanding the decline in global oil prices, the administration opted to increase the petroleum charge rather than transferring the savings to the public.

At present, petrol is priced at Rs254.63 per litre, whereas high-speed diesel (HSD) is priced at Rs258.64 per litre.